Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kansas @ Texas Tech KU @ TTU

KANSAS

KANSASKU

4-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Jones AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

5-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Tate Nagy
KEY GAME

Tate Nagy

#11 | Wide Receiver
@
Stone Harrington
KEY GAME

Stone Harrington

#48 | Place kicker
Player
Tate Nagy None-None
Stone Harrington None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS
100%
📊
TEXAS TECH
0%
KANSAS --
TEXAS TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Texas Tech)
KansasKU (-3.5) 0 Texas TechTTU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas Cover

30.9%

Texas Tech Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TTU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

KU By 1-6 points

12.9%

KU By 7-13 points

9.6%

TTU By 1-6 points

16.5%

TTU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
KANSAS
46
TEXAS TECH
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS
28
TEXAS TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Tech Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Texas Tech (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 KU @ TTU 17 - 42
Nov 11, 2023 TTU @ KU 16 - 13
Nov 12, 2022 KU @ TTU 28 - 43
Oct 16, 2021 TTU @ KU 41 - 14
Dec 5, 2020 KU @ TTU 13 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +83.0% more
Texas Tech: 1.4 vs Kansas: 0.6
First Downs (L5) +31.9% more
Texas Tech: 26.1 vs Kansas: 19.8
Total Yards (L5) +26.1% more
Texas Tech: 544.3 vs Kansas: 431.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Texas Tech: 0.5 vs Kansas: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KU Score 39.0 17
TTU Score 46.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.1 / 19.8 22.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 191.3 / 159.9 372.0 / 47.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 544.3 / 431.7 505.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
TTU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
TTU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
TTU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
KU
TTU
KU
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
ATS
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
TTL
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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