Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Carolina @ LSU SC @ LSU

SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINASC

3-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 7:45 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA)
View Odds Details →

LSU

LSULSU

4-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Mason Love
KEY GAME

Mason Love

#24 | Place kicker
@
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
Player
Mason Love None-None
Grant Chadwick None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH CAROLINA
0%
📊
LSU
100%
SOUTH CAROLINA --
LSU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (South Carolina)
South CarolinaSC (-3.5) 0 LSULSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Carolina Cover

97.7%

LSU Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SC -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SC)

SC By 1-6 points

3.8%

SC By 7-13 points

8.8%

LSU By 1-6 points

1.4%

LSU By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
SOUTH CAROLINA
11
LSU
Simulated Score
17
SOUTH CAROLINA
38
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI South Carolina Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim LSU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI South Carolina (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim LSU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 SC @ LSU 10 - 20
Sep 14, 2024 LSU @ SC 36 - 33
Oct 24, 2020 SC @ LSU 24 - 52
Oct 10, 2015 SC @ LSU 24 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.9% more
South Carolina: 115.4 vs LSU: 98.3
First Downs (L5) +14.3% more
LSU: 20.9 vs South Carolina: 18.3
Total Yards (L5) +9.5% more
LSU: 364.1 vs South Carolina: 332.4
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
LSU: 0.9 vs South Carolina: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SC Score 39.0 10
LSU Score 11.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 18.3 22.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 98.3 / 115.4 166.0 / 193.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 364.1 / 332.4 420.0 / 317.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.8 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: -3.9
LSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.4 ATS +/-: +6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SC
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: -3.9
LSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 28.4 ATS +/-: +6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SC
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.1
LSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
SC
LSU
SC
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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