Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ MTSU MOST @ MTSU

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

2-3  |  Road

22
FINAL
Wed, Oct 8 • 7:30 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

1-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
@
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
Player
Stewart McDonald None-None
Ashton Logan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
100%
📊
MTSU
0%
MISSOURI ST --
MTSU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
Missouri StMOST (-3.5) 0 MTSUMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

30.9%

MTSU Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MTSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

MOST By 1-6 points

12.9%

MOST By 7-13 points

9.6%

MTSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

MTSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
MISSOURI STATE
46
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
13
MISSOURI STATE
38
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI MTSU Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim MTSU Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI MTSU (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim MTSU (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2025 MOST @ MTSU 22 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +10.9% more
Middle Tennessee: 1.3 vs Missouri State: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.3% more
Missouri State: 130.1 vs Middle Tennessee: 105.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 39.0 22
MTSU Score 46.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 19.3 22.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 105.0 / 130.1 86.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 371.8 / 379.0 353.0 / 348.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
MTSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
MTSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.1
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
MOST
MTSU
MOST
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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