Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio @ Ball State OHIO @ BALL

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

3-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 12:00 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

1-3  |  Home

20
Key Game
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
@
Carson Holmer
KEY GAME

Carson Holmer

#98 | Place kicker
Player
Magnus Haines None-None
Carson Holmer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO
100%
📊
BALL STATE
0%
OHIO --
BALL STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
79.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Ball State)
OhioOHIO (-3.5) 0 Ball StateBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio Cover

6.7%

Ball State Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BALL -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

OHIO By 1-6 points

3.8%

OHIO By 7-13 points

1.8%

BALL By 1-6 points

7.9%

BALL By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
29
OHIO
50
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
24
OHIO
27
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ball State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ball State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ball State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Ball State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 79.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 OHIO @ BALL 14 - 20
Nov 29, 2024 BALL @ OHIO 21 - 42
Nov 15, 2022 OHIO @ BALL 32 - 18
Oct 26, 2019 OHIO @ BALL 34 - 21
Oct 25, 2018 BALL @ OHIO 14 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.6% more
Ohio: 219.6 vs Ball State: 154.5
First Downs (L5) +28.9% more
Ohio: 24.0 vs Ball State: 17.1
Turnovers (L5) +26.5% more
Ohio: 1.6 vs Ball State: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +25.4% more
Ohio: 439.4 vs Ball State: 327.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score 29.0 14
BALL Score 50.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 24.0 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 154.5 / 219.6 172.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 327.7 / 439.4 357.0 / 356.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
BALL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
OHIO
BALL
OHIO
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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