Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Clemson @ North Carolina CLEM @ UNC

CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

1-3  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 12:00 PM ET
Kenan Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

2-2  |  Home

10
Key Game
Nolan Hauser
KEY GAME

Nolan Hauser

#81 | Place kicker
@
Jalon Thompson
KEY GAME

Jalon Thompson

#4 | Defensive Back
Player
Nolan Hauser None-None
Jalon Thompson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CLEMSON
100%
📊
NORTH CAROLINA
0%
CLEMSON --
NORTH CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
87.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (North Carolina)
ClemsonCLEM (-3.5) 0 North CarolinaUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Clemson Cover

36.0%

North Carolina Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

CLEM By 1-6 points

14.2%

CLEM By 7-13 points

11.3%

UNC By 1-6 points

16.9%

UNC By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
41
CLEMSON
46
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
24
CLEMSON
31
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI North Carolina Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim North Carolina Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI North Carolina (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim North Carolina (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 87.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UNC @ CLEM 20 - 28
Oct 4, 2025 CLEM @ UNC 38 - 10
Nov 18, 2023 UNC @ CLEM 20 - 31
Dec 3, 2022 CLEM @ UNC 39 - 10
Sep 28, 2019 CLEM @ UNC 21 - 20
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +32.7% more
Clemson: 21.6 vs North Carolina: 14.5
Total Yards (L5) +32.6% more
Clemson: 405.9 vs North Carolina: 273.7
Turnovers (L5) +12.5% more
Clemson: 1.7 vs North Carolina: 1.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.2% more
Clemson: 129.8 vs North Carolina: 119.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLEM Score 41.0 38
UNC Score 46.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.5 / 21.6 19.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 119.2 / 129.8 57.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.18 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 273.7 / 405.9 265.0 / 488.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLEM Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLEM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CLEM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.3
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
CLEM
UNC
CLEM
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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