Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boston College @ Pitt BC @ PITT

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

1-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 12:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

2-2  |  Home

48
Key Game
Andy Quinn
KEY GAME

Andy Quinn

#25 | Place kicker
@
Trevor Sommers
KEY GAME

Trevor Sommers

#90 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Andy Quinn None-None
Trevor Sommers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOSTON COLLEGE
0%
📊
PITT
100%
BOSTON COLLEGE --
PITT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Boston College)
Boston CollegeBC (-3.5) 0 PittPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boston College Cover

74.0%

Pitt Cover

26.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BC -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BC)

BC By 1-6 points

15.7%

BC By 7-13 points

19.7%

PITT By 1-6 points

11.5%

PITT By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
31
BOSTON COLLEGE
22
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
24
BOSTON COLLEGE
27
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Boston College Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Pitt Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Boston College (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Pitt (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 BC @ PITT 7 - 48
Nov 30, 2024 PITT @ BC 23 - 34
Nov 16, 2023 BC @ PITT 16 - 24
Oct 10, 2020 PITT @ BC 30 - 31
Nov 30, 2019 BC @ PITT 26 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.9% more
Boston College: 118.0 vs Pittsburgh: 100.4
First Downs (L5) +14.5% more
Boston College: 21.2 vs Pittsburgh: 18.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Boston College: 0.4 vs Pittsburgh: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +58.2% more
Pittsburgh: 2.6 vs Boston College: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BC Score 31.0 7
PITT Score 22.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 21.2 31.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 100.4 / 118.0 172.0 / 27.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 377.9 / 407.6 503.0 / 216.0
Turnovers 2.6 / 1.7 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BC
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
BC
PITT
BC
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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