ILLINOIS
ILLINOISILL
4-1 | Road
43
PURDUE
PURDUEPUR
2-2 | Home
27
Key Game
KEY GAME
Pat Farrell
#52 | Defensive Lineman@
KEY GAME
Smiley Bradford
#1 | Defensive Back| Player | |
|---|---|
| Pat Farrell | None-None |
| Smiley Bradford | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ILLINOIS
0%
PURDUE
100%
ILLINOIS
--
PURDUE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ILL -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
ILL By 1-6 points
0.7%
ILL By 7-13 points
2.4%
PUR By 1-6 points
0.2%
PUR By 7-13 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois
39
ILLINOIS
Purdue
0
PURDUE
Simulated Score
Illinois
20
ILLINOIS
Purdue
27
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Illinois
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Purdue
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Illinois (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
C
Sim
Purdue (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 39.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
PUR @ ILL
24 - 17
Oct 4, 2025
ILL @ PUR
43 - 27
Oct 12, 2024
PUR @ ILL
49 - 50
Sep 30, 2023
ILL @ PUR
19 - 44
Nov 12, 2022
PUR @ ILL
31 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+32.4% more
Illinois: 130.5
vs
Purdue: 88.2
Turnovers (L5)
+84.1% more
Purdue: 2.0
vs
Illinois: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILL Score
39.0
43
PUR Score
0.0
27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.9 / 19.8
25.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards
88.2 / 130.5
151.0 / 117.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.38 / 0.18
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards
350.7 / 375.5
453.0 / 507.0
Turnovers
2.0 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -5.6
PUR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -5.6
PUR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +1.3
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
ILL
PUR
ILL
ML
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
ATS
25%
1-3-1
40%
2-3
50%
2-2-1
80%
4-1
TTL
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
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