Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kentucky @ Georgia UK @ UGA

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

2-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 12:00 PM ET
Sanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

3-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Jacob Kauwe
KEY GAME

Jacob Kauwe

#91 | Place kicker
@
Gabe Harris Jr.
KEY GAME

Gabe Harris Jr.

#0 | Linebacker
Player
Jacob Kauwe None-None
Gabe Harris Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENTUCKY
100%
📊
GEORGIA
0%
KENTUCKY --
GEORGIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Georgia)
KentuckyUK (-3.5) 0 GeorgiaUGA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kentucky Cover

26.0%

Georgia Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UGA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)

UK By 1-6 points

11.5%

UK By 7-13 points

8.0%

UGA By 1-6 points

15.7%

UGA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
12
KENTUCKY
21
GEORGIA
Simulated Score
17
KENTUCKY
38
GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Georgia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Georgia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 UK @ UGA 14 - 35
Sep 14, 2024 UGA @ UK 13 - 12
Oct 7, 2023 UK @ UGA 13 - 51
Nov 19, 2022 UGA @ UK 16 - 6
Oct 16, 2021 UK @ UGA 13 - 30
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +24.8% more
Georgia: 22.5 vs Kentucky: 18.0
Total Yards (L5) +21.8% more
Georgia: 410.8 vs Kentucky: 337.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.2% more
Georgia: 193.2 vs Kentucky: 166.2
Turnovers (L5) +35.0% more
Kentucky: 2.1 vs Georgia: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UK Score 12.0 14
UGA Score 21.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 18.0 26.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 193.2 / 166.2 180.0 / 45.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.75 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 410.8 / 337.3 425.0 / 270.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.1 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
UGA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
UGA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
UK
UGA
UK
ML
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
TTL
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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