Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Vanderbilt @ Alabama VAN @ ALA

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

5-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

3-1  |  Home

30
Key Game
Cole Adams
KEY GAME

Cole Adams

#7 | Wide Receiver
@
Zabien Brown
KEY GAME

Zabien Brown

#2 | Defensive Back
Player
Cole Adams None-None
Zabien Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VANDERBILT
100%
📊
ALABAMA
0%
VANDERBILT --
ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
97.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Alabama)
VanderbiltVAN (-3.5) 0 AlabamaALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vanderbilt Cover

8.7%

Alabama Cover

91.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ALA -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

VAN By 1-6 points

4.8%

VAN By 7-13 points

2.4%

ALA By 1-6 points

9.3%

ALA By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
39
VANDERBILT
58
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
10
VANDERBILT
45
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Alabama Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Alabama Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Alabama (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
C
Sim Alabama (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 97.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 VAN @ ALA 14 - 30
Oct 5, 2024 ALA @ VAN 35 - 40
Sep 24, 2022 VAN @ ALA 3 - 55
Sep 23, 2017 ALA @ VAN 59 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.0% more
Vanderbilt: 214.8 vs Alabama: 122.5
Turnovers (L5) +25.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.7 vs Alabama: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +13.1% more
Vanderbilt: 487.0 vs Alabama: 423.3
First Downs (L5) +12.2% more
Vanderbilt: 26.4 vs Alabama: 23.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 39.0 14
ALA Score 58.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 26.4 25.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 122.5 / 214.8 146.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 423.3 / 487.0 486.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
ALA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
VAN
ALA
VAN
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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