Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia @ Louisville UVA @ LOU

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

4-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

4-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Elijah Slibeck
KEY GAME

Elijah Slibeck

#99 | Punter
@
Kalib Perry
KEY GAME

Kalib Perry

#52 | Linebacker
Player
Elijah Slibeck None-None
Kalib Perry None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA
100%
📊
LOUISVILLE
0%
VIRGINIA --
LOUISVILLE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Louisville)
VirginiaUVA (-3.5) 0 LouisvilleLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Cover

17.7%

Louisville Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LOU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

UVA By 1-6 points

8.6%

UVA By 7-13 points

5.3%

LOU By 1-6 points

13.5%

LOU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
VIRGINIA
52
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
20
VIRGINIA
31
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisville Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisville Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisville (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Louisville (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 91.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 UVA @ LOU 30 - 27
Oct 12, 2024 LOU @ UVA 24 - 20
Nov 9, 2023 UVA @ LOU 24 - 31
Oct 8, 2022 LOU @ UVA 34 - 17
Oct 9, 2021 UVA @ LOU 34 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.3% more
Virginia: 221.7 vs Louisville: 130.1
Turnovers (L5) +25.5% more
Virginia: 1.5 vs Louisville: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +20.3% more
Virginia: 26.1 vs Louisville: 20.8
Total Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Virginia: 498.9 vs Louisville: 406.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 39.0 30
LOU Score 52.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 26.1 25.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 130.1 / 221.7 54.0 / 88.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 406.2 / 498.9 383.0 / 237.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
LOU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
UVA
LOU
UVA
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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