KANSAS
KANSASKU
3-2 | Road
27
UCF
UCFUCF
3-1 | Home
20
Key Game
KEY GAME
Tate Nagy
#11 | Wide Receiver@
KEY GAME
Jeffson Lafontant
#92 | Defensive Tackle| Player | |
|---|---|
| Tate Nagy | None-None |
| Jeffson Lafontant | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS
0%
UCF
100%
KANSAS
--
UCF
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Kansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)
KU By 1-6 points
12.9%
KU By 7-13 points
19.0%
UCF By 1-6 points
7.9%
UCF By 7-13 points
4.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas
29
KANSAS
UCF
15
UCF
Simulated Score
Kansas
24
KANSAS
UCF
31
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kansas
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
UCF
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kansas (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim
UCF (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 4, 2025
KU @ UCF
27 - 20
Oct 7, 2023
UCF @ KU
22 - 51
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+13.6% more
Kansas: 22.2
vs
UCF: 19.2
Total Yards (L5)
+10.6% more
Kansas: 469.6
vs
UCF: 419.6
Turnovers (L5)
+58.0% more
UCF: 1.4
vs
Kansas: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5)
+13.1% more
UCF: 202.9
vs
Kansas: 179.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KU Score
29.0
27
UCF Score
15.0
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.2 / 22.2
21.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards
202.9 / 179.4
199.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.25 / 0.27
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards
419.6 / 469.6
375.0 / 356.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 19.0
ATS +/-: +4.9
UCF
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 14.8
ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 19.0
ATS +/-: +4.9
UCF
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 14.8
ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
KU
UCF
KU
ML
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
100%
5-0
50%
2-2
ATS
40%
2-3
25%
1-3
40%
2-3
0%
0-4
TTL
60%
3-2
75%
3-1
20%
1-4
50%
2-2
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