Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duke @ California DUKE @ CAL

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

3-2  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 10:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

4-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
@
Odera Okaka
KEY GAME

Odera Okaka

#19 | Linebacker
Player
Kade Reynoldson None-None
Odera Okaka None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUKE
100%
📊
CALIFORNIA
0%
DUKE --
CALIFORNIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (California)
DukeDUKE (-3.5) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duke Cover

30.9%

California Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

DUKE By 1-6 points

12.9%

DUKE By 7-13 points

9.6%

CAL By 1-6 points

16.5%

CAL By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
DUKE
46
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
24
DUKE
27
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI California Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim California Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI California (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim California (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 DUKE @ CAL 45 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +39.0% more
California: 1.3 vs Duke: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.1% more
Duke: 159.7 vs California: 105.2
Total Yards (L5) +21.1% more
Duke: 449.3 vs California: 354.7
First Downs (L5) +10.1% more
Duke: 22.4 vs California: 20.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 39.0 45
CAL Score 46.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 22.4 20.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 105.2 / 159.7 41.0 / 178.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 354.7 / 449.3 286.0 / 443.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.9 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
DUKE
CAL
DUKE
ML
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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