Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Alabama @ North Texas USA @ UNT

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

1-3  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 12:00 PM ET
DATCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

4-0  |  Home

36
Key Game
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
@
Terrell Washington
KEY GAME

Terrell Washington

#93 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
Terrell Washington None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH ALABAMA
0%
📊
NORTH TEXAS
100%
SOUTH ALABAMA --
NORTH TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
76.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (South Alabama)
South AlabamaUSA (-3.5) 0 North TexasUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Alabama Cover

71.6%

North Texas Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USA -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

USA By 1-6 points

16.1%

USA By 7-13 points

19.5%

UNT By 1-6 points

12.2%

UNT By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
42
SOUTH ALABAMA
34
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
27
SOUTH ALABAMA
24
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Alabama Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Alabama Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Alabama (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim South Alabama (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 76.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 USA @ UNT 22 - 36
Aug 31, 2024 UNT @ USA 52 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +59.9% more
South Alabama: 2.1 vs North Texas: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +17.1% more
North Texas: 24.9 vs South Alabama: 21.3
Total Yards (L5) +13.4% more
North Texas: 448.0 vs South Alabama: 394.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
North Texas: 0.5 vs South Alabama: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 42.0 22
UNT Score 34.0 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.9 / 21.3 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 184.9 / 192.1 195.0 / 204.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.37
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 448.0 / 394.9 429.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 2.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
USA
UNT
USA
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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