Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Notre Dame @ Arkansas ND @ ARK

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

1-2  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 12:00 PM ET
Razorback Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

2-2  |  Home

13
Key Game
Erik Schmidt
KEY GAME

Erik Schmidt

#18 | Punter
@
David Oke
KEY GAME

David Oke

#92 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Erik Schmidt None-None
David Oke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NOTRE DAME
0%
📊
ARKANSAS
100%
NOTRE DAME --
ARKANSAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
86.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Notre Dame)
Notre DameND (-3.5) 0 ArkansasARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Notre Dame Cover

71.6%

Arkansas Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ND -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

ND By 1-6 points

16.1%

ND By 7-13 points

19.5%

ARK By 1-6 points

12.2%

ARK By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
47
NOTRE DAME
39
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
27
NOTRE DAME
24
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Notre Dame Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim Notre Dame (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 86.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 ND @ ARK 56 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +73.1% more
Arkansas: 1.9 vs Notre Dame: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.9% more
Arkansas: 210.3 vs Notre Dame: 168.4
Total Yards (L5) +22.9% more
Arkansas: 521.3 vs Notre Dame: 424.1
First Downs (L5) +14.8% more
Arkansas: 25.6 vs Notre Dame: 22.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 47.0 56
ARK Score 39.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.6 / 22.3 15.0 / 32.0
Rushing Yards 210.3 / 168.4 158.0 / 210.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 521.3 / 424.1 365.0 / 641.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.1 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
ARK
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
ARK
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
ND
ARK
ND
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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