USC
USCUSC
4-0 | Road
32
ILLINOIS
ILLINOISILL
3-1 | Home
34
Key Game
KEY GAME
Ryon Sayeri
#48 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Karson Kaiser
#28 | Wide Receiver| Player | |
|---|---|
| Ryon Sayeri | None-None |
| Karson Kaiser | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
USC
0%
ILLINOIS
100%
USC
--
ILLINOIS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
105.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
USC By 1-6 points
16.5%
USC By 7-13 points
19.3%
ILL By 1-6 points
12.9%
ILL By 7-13 points
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
USC
56
USC
Illinois
49
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
USC
24
USC
Illinois
38
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
USC
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Illinois
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
USC (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim
Illinois (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 105.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2025
USC @ ILL
32 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+52.5% more
USC: 232.0
vs
Illinois: 110.3
Total Yards (L5)
+41.5% more
USC: 534.0
vs
Illinois: 312.2
Turnovers (L5)
+36.0% more
USC: 1.0
vs
Illinois: 0.6
First Downs (L5)
+32.8% more
USC: 25.5
vs
Illinois: 17.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USC Score
56.0
32
ILL Score
49.0
34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.1 / 25.5
25.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards
110.3 / 232.0
171.0 / 126.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.6 / 0.57
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards
312.2 / 534.0
502.0 / 490.0
Turnovers
0.6 / 1.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
Advantage
5-1-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: -7.3
ILL
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
1-5-0
(16.7%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: -7.3
ILL
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +4.7
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
USC
ILL
USC
ML
60%
3-2
100%
6-0
60%
3-2
83%
5-1
ATS
40%
2-3
67%
4-2
80%
4-1
67%
4-2
TTL
80%
4-1
50%
3-3
60%
3-2
50%
3-3
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