Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ Missouri St WKU @ MOST

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

3-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

2-2  |  Home

22
Key Game
Jordan Donald
KEY GAME

Jordan Donald

#22 | Linebacker
@
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
Player
Jordan Donald None-None
Stewart McDonald None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
100%
📊
MISSOURI ST
0%
WESTERN KY --
MISSOURI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Missouri State)
Western KYWKU (-3.5) 0 Missouri StMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

15.9%

Missouri St Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MOST -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

WKU By 1-6 points

7.9%

WKU By 7-13 points

4.7%

MOST By 1-6 points

12.9%

MOST By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
56
WESTERN KENTUCKY
70
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
28
WESTERN KENTUCKY
31
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Missouri St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Missouri St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 WKU @ MOST 27 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.4% more
Western Kentucky: 110.7 vs Missouri State: 88.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.4 vs Missouri State: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +12.9% more
Western Kentucky: 21.2 vs Missouri State: 18.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 56.0 27
MOST Score 70.0 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 21.2 21.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 88.1 / 110.7 214.0 / 159.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.17 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 361.5 / 392.3 414.0 / 476.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
MOST Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
MOST Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
WKU
MOST
WKU
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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