Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San José St @ Stanford SJSU @ STAN

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

1-2  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 7:30 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

1-3  |  Home

30
Key Game
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
@
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
Player
Trent Carrizosa None-None
Aidan Flintoft None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
0%
📊
STANFORD
100%
SAN JOSÉ ST --
STANFORD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San José State)
San José StSJSU (-3.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

55.7%

Stanford Cover

44.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SJSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

SJSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

SJSU By 7-13 points

16.8%

STAN By 1-6 points

15.7%

STAN By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24
SAN JOSÉ STATE
22
STANFORD
Simulated Score
20
SAN JOSÉ STATE
31
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI San José St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Stanford Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI San José St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
C
Sim Stanford (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 SJSU @ STAN 29 - 30
Nov 29, 2024 STAN @ SJSU 31 - 34
Sep 7, 2013 SJSU @ STAN 13 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.9% more
San José State: 2.3 vs Stanford: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.0% more
San José State: 125.1 vs Stanford: 103.8
Total Yards (L5) +16.0% more
San José State: 375.1 vs Stanford: 314.9
First Downs (L5) +14.4% more
San José State: 18.5 vs Stanford: 15.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 24.0 29
STAN Score 22.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.9 / 18.5 23.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 103.8 / 125.1 37.0 / 51.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.23 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 314.9 / 375.1 481.0 / 524.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 2.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
SJSU
STAN
SJSU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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