ALABAMA
ALABAMAALA
2-1 | Road
24
GEORGIA
GEORGIAUGA
3-0 | Home
21
Key Game
KEY GAME
Dre Kirkpatrick Jr.
#21 | Defensive Back@
KEY GAME
Ellis Robinson IV
#1 | Defensive Back| Player | |
|---|---|
| Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. | None-None |
| Ellis Robinson IV | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA
100%
GEORGIA
0%
ALABAMA
--
GEORGIA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Georgia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UGA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)
ALA By 1-6 points
7.9%
ALA By 7-13 points
4.7%
UGA By 1-6 points
12.9%
UGA By 7-13 points
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama
13
ALABAMA
Georgia
27
GEORGIA
Simulated Score
Alabama
24
ALABAMA
Georgia
27
GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Georgia
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Georgia
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Georgia (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim
Georgia (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
UGA @ ALA
28 - 7
Sep 27, 2025
ALA @ UGA
24 - 21
Sep 28, 2024
UGA @ ALA
34 - 41
Dec 2, 2023
UGA @ ALA
24 - 27
Jan 10, 2022
UGA @ ALA
33 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+84.0% more
Georgia: 1.6
vs
Alabama: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5)
+40.7% more
Georgia: 176.2
vs
Alabama: 125.2
First Downs (L5)
+13.5% more
Georgia: 25.3
vs
Alabama: 22.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALA Score
13.0
24
UGA Score
27.0
21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
25.3 / 22.3
17.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards
176.2 / 125.2
227.0 / 117.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.25 / 0.68
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards
437.8 / 436.5
357.0 / 397.0
Turnovers
1.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 28.8
ATS +/-: +14.1
UGA
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 38.0
ATS +/-: +7.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 28.8
ATS +/-: +14.1
UGA
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 38.0
ATS +/-: +7.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +16.9
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +12.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
ALA
UGA
ALA
ML
100%
4-0
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
20%
1-4
ATS
50%
2-2
60%
3-2
20%
1-4
20%
1-4
TTL
75%
3-1
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
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