Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kentucky @ South Carolina UK @ SC

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

2-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 7:45 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINASC

2-2  |  Home

35
Key Game
Jacob Kauwe
KEY GAME

Jacob Kauwe

#91 | Place kicker
@
Anthony Addison
KEY GAME

Anthony Addison

#40 | Defensive End
Player
Jacob Kauwe None-None
Anthony Addison None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENTUCKY
100%
📊
SOUTH CAROLINA
0%
KENTUCKY --
SOUTH CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (South Carolina)
KentuckyUK (-3.5) 0 South CarolinaSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kentucky Cover

26.0%

South Carolina Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SC -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SC)

UK By 1-6 points

11.5%

UK By 7-13 points

8.0%

SC By 1-6 points

15.7%

SC By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
KENTUCKY
30
SOUTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
24
KENTUCKY
27
SOUTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Carolina Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Carolina Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Carolina (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim South Carolina (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 UK @ SC 35 - 34
Sep 27, 2025 UK @ SC 13 - 35
Sep 7, 2024 SC @ UK 31 - 6
Nov 18, 2023 UK @ SC 14 - 17
Oct 8, 2022 SC @ UK 24 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.9% more
Kentucky: 195.3 vs South Carolina: 84.1
Total Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Kentucky: 389.9 vs South Carolina: 328.1
First Downs (L5) +10.8% more
Kentucky: 20.1 vs South Carolina: 17.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UK Score 21.0 13
SC Score 30.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 20.1 19.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 84.1 / 195.3 178.0 / 108.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 328.1 / 389.9 341.0 / 232.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.2 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
SC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
SC
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
SC
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SC
UK
SC
UK
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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