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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

87-71  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Sep 25 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

90-68  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Brayan Bello
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Bello

#66 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brayan Bello None-None 3.35 -- 5.0 3
Brendon Little None-None 3.09 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.35 ERA Ldr 3.09
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
48%
📊
BLUE JAYS
52%
RED SOX --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

63.2%

Blue Jays Cover

36.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.1%

TOR By 1-2 runs

15.4%

TOR By 3-4 runs

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.96
BOSTON
4.61
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 BOS @ TOR 7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026 BOS @ TOR 4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 BOS @ TOR 3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026 BOS @ TOR 1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026 TOR @ BOS 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Toronto TOR
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .381
.409
OPS
▲ .692
2
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +49.4% more
Boston: 10.4 vs Toronto: 5.3
Total Bases (L5) +45.8% more
Boston: 15.7 vs Toronto: 8.5
Home Runs (L5) +40.0% more
Boston: 1.0 vs Toronto: 0.6
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Boston: 0.8 vs Toronto: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 6.0 1
TOR Score 4.6 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.3 / 10.4 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 8.0 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 8.5 / 15.7 16.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.0 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
46% 74-87
50% 80-80
50% 80-80
47% 76-87
ATS
56% 90-71
58% 93-67
49% 79-81
48% 79-84
TTL
51% 80-76-5
46% 72-83-5
45% 70-85-5
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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