BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
85-71 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
90-66 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.19 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 4.74 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.19 Ldr
ERA
4.74
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
47%
BLUE JAYS
53%
RED SOX
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
61%
Under 0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
11.5%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.07
BOSTON
Toronto
5.77
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.409
OPS
▲
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+300.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+28.3%
Toronto: 69.2%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+15.1%
Toronto: 31.0%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.1
4
TOR Score
5.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.3 / 9.9
3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.7 / 9.7
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 13.3
4.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.5
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
46%
74-87
50%
80-80
50%
80-80
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-67
49%
79-81
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-85-5
47%
74-83-6
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…
Yankees Denied by Replay as Fan Interference Echoes Jeffrey Maie…
Brewers Aim to Clinch NLDS Against Padres in Game 4 Showdown
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer