Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Royals TOR @ KC

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

89-66  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

78-77  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
@
Luinder Avila
STARTING PITCHER

Luinder Avila

#58 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brendon Little None-None 3.17 -- 1.2 --
Luinder Avila None-None 0.77 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.17 ERA Ldr 0.77
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
57%
📊
ROYALS
43%
BLUE JAYS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Kansas City)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

17.2%

Royals Cover

82.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

TOR By 1-2 runs

8.4%

TOR By 3-4 runs

3.9%

KC By 1-2 runs

16.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.31
TORONTO
6.09
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.8
C
Sim Royals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 TOR @ KC 1 - 6
Sep 5, 2026 TOR @ KC 4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026 TOR @ KC 9 - 2
Aug 27, 2026 KC @ TOR 13 - 2
Aug 26, 2026 KC @ TOR 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.692
OPS
▲ .718
152
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +139.1% more
Kansas City: 19.6 vs Toronto: 8.2
Hits (L5) +126.0% more
Kansas City: 11.2 vs Toronto: 5.0
Home Runs (L5) +111.0% more
Kansas City: 1.9 vs Toronto: 0.8
Home Runs (Season) +11.8% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.3 8
KC Score 6.1 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.2 / 5.0 10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 6.5 5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 19.6 / 8.2 13.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TOR
KC
TOR
ML
55% 89-72
46% 74-87
56% 90-70
50% 80-80
ATS
57% 91-70
56% 90-71
58% 93-67
49% 79-81
TTL
58% 90-64-7
51% 80-76-5
54% 83-70-7
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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