Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Maine @ GA Southern ME @ GASO

MAINE

MAINEME

0-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

1-2  |  Home

45
Key Game
Anthony Pecorella
KEY GAME

Anthony Pecorella

#82 | Punter
@
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Anthony Pecorella None-None
Tripp Bryant None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MAINE
100%
📊
GA SOUTHERN
0%
MAINE --
GA SOUTHERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Georgia Southern)
MaineME (-3.5) 0 GA SouthernGASO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maine Cover

0.1%

GA Southern Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GASO -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

ME By 1-6 points

0.1%

ME By 7-13 points

0.0%

GASO By 1-6 points

0.4%

GASO By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10
MAINE
52
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
7
MAINE
45
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI GA Southern Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim GA Southern Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI GA Southern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim GA Southern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 ME @ GASO 17 - 45
Sep 7, 2019 ME @ GASO 18 - 26
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +33.5% more
Georgia Southern: 22.2 vs Maine: 16.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Georgia Southern: 0.5 vs Maine: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Georgia Southern: 160.9 vs Maine: 136.2
Total Yards (L5) +17.6% more
Georgia Southern: 364.9 vs Maine: 310.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ME Score 10.0 17
GASO Score 52.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.2 / 16.6 28.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 160.9 / 136.2 206.0 / 109.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.6 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 364.9 / 310.3 516.0 / 248.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.6 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
--
GASO Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME
--
GASO Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
--
GASO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
ME
GASO
ME
ML
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
ATS
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
TTL
0% 0-5
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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