TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
89-64 | Road
1
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
76-77 | Home
20
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Lorenzen
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Luinder Avila
#58 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen | None-None | 4.70 | -- | 7.2 | 4 |
| Luinder Avila | None-None | 0.84 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.70
ERA
Ldr 0.84
--
WHIP
--
7.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
58%
ROYALS
42%
BLUE JAYS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
TOR By 1-2 runs
14.2%
TOR By 3-4 runs
8.4%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
KC By 3-4 runs
18.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.41
TORONTO
Kansas City
5.19
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
TOR @ KC
1 - 6
Sep 5, 2026
TOR @ KC
4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
TOR @ KC
9 - 2
Aug 27, 2026
KC @ TOR
13 - 2
Aug 26, 2026
KC @ TOR
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.692
OPS
▲
.718
152
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+76.0% more
Kansas City: 1.2
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+52.2% more
Kansas City: 14.4
vs
Toronto: 9.4
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5
vs
Toronto: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+30.8% more
Kansas City: 8.7
vs
Toronto: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.4
1
KC Score
5.2
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 6.7
27.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.5
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 8.0
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 9.4
43.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.2
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TOR
KC
TOR
ML
55%
89-72
46%
74-87
56%
90-70
50%
80-80
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
90-71
58%
93-67
49%
79-81
TTL
58%
90-64-7
51%
80-76-5
54%
83-70-7
45%
70-85-5
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