Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Jaguars HOU @ JAX

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

1-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
JAGUARS
100%
TEXANS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

54.6%

Jaguars Cover

45.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.8%

HOU By 7-13 points

16.6%

JAX By 1-6 points

15.9%

JAX By 7-13 points

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
19.66
HOUSTON
18.04
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
27
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 JAX @ HOU 29 - 36
Sep 21, 2025 HOU @ JAX 10 - 17
Dec 1, 2024 HOU @ JAX 23 - 20
Sep 29, 2024 JAX @ HOU 20 - 24
Nov 26, 2023 JAX @ HOU 24 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.0% more
Jacksonville: 1.4 vs Houston: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +22.6% more
Jacksonville: 19.4 vs Houston: 15.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +20.7% more
Jacksonville: 220.2 vs Houston: 182.5
Total Yards (L5) +19.7% more
Jacksonville: 357.1 vs Houston: 298.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 19.7 10
JAX Score 18.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 15.8 17.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 220.2 / 182.5 205.0 / 184.0
Rushing Yards 136.9 / 116.0 86.0 / 87.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 357.1 / 298.5 291.0 / 271.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.4 4.4 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
HOU
JAX
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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