Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bowling Green @ Louisville BGSU @ LOU

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

2-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 12:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

2-0  |  Home

40
Key Game
Myles Bradley
KEY GAME

Myles Bradley

#23 | Defensive End
@
Nick Keller
KEY GAME

Nick Keller

#98 | Place kicker
Player
Myles Bradley None-None
Nick Keller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOWLING GREEN
100%
📊
LOUISVILLE
0%
BOWLING GREEN --
LOUISVILLE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Louisville)
Bowling GreenBGSU (-3.5) 0 LouisvilleLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bowling Green Cover

0.1%

Louisville Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LOU -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

BGSU By 1-6 points

0.0%

BGSU By 7-13 points

0.0%

LOU By 1-6 points

0.2%

LOU By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6
BOWLING GREEN
51
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
13
BOWLING GREEN
45
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisville Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisville Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisville (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Sim Louisville (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 BGSU @ LOU 17 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +98.0% more
Louisville: 1.2 vs Bowling Green: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.5% more
Louisville: 189.9 vs Bowling Green: 126.1
Total Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Louisville: 400.3 vs Bowling Green: 337.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Louisville: 0.5 vs Bowling Green: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 6.0 17
LOU Score 51.0 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 18.6 21.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 189.9 / 126.1 126.0 / 190.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 400.3 / 337.7 439.0 / 321.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
LOU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
LOU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
BGSU
LOU
BGSU
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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