Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Maryland @ Wisconsin MD @ WIS

MARYLAND

MARYLANDMD

3-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 12:00 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

2-1  |  Home

10
Key Game
Sean O'Haire
KEY GAME

Sean O'Haire

#36 | Place kicker
@
Mason Posa
KEY GAME

Mason Posa

#8 | Linebacker
Player
Sean O'Haire None-None
Mason Posa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARYLAND
100%
📊
WISCONSIN
0%
MARYLAND --
WISCONSIN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Wisconsin)
MarylandMD (-3.5) 0 WisconsinWIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maryland Cover

0.9%

Wisconsin Cover

99.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WIS -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)

MD By 1-6 points

0.6%

MD By 7-13 points

0.2%

WIS By 1-6 points

1.9%

WIS By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14
MARYLAND
47
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
24
MARYLAND
27
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wisconsin Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Wisconsin Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wisconsin (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
C
Sim Wisconsin (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 MD @ WIS 27 - 10
Nov 5, 2022 MD @ WIS 10 - 23
Oct 21, 2017 MD @ WIS 13 - 38
Nov 7, 2015 WIS @ MD 31 - 24
Oct 25, 2014 MD @ WIS 7 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.3% more
Wisconsin: 1.6 vs Maryland: 1.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Wisconsin: 0.4 vs Maryland: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +16.4% more
Maryland: 361.5 vs Wisconsin: 302.1
First Downs (L5) +14.7% more
Maryland: 20.2 vs Wisconsin: 17.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MD Score 14.0 27
WIS Score 47.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 20.2 21.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 119.4 / 113.2 61.0 / 61.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.18 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 302.1 / 361.5 296.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -7.1
WIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -7.1
WIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
MD
WIS
MD
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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