ARKANSAS
ARKANSASARK
2-1 | Road
31
MEMPHIS
MEMPHISMEM
3-0 | Home
32
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jamari Hawkins
#9 | Wide Receiver@
KEY GAME
Taylor Burton
#90 | Defensive Lineman| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jamari Hawkins | None-None |
| Taylor Burton | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS
100%
MEMPHIS
0%
ARKANSAS
--
MEMPHIS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MEM -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
ARK By 1-6 points
0.0%
ARK By 7-13 points
0.0%
MEM By 1-6 points
0.2%
MEM By 7-13 points
0.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas
6
ARKANSAS
Memphis
51
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Arkansas
20
ARKANSAS
Memphis
31
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Memphis
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Memphis
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Memphis (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Sim
Memphis (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2025
ARK @ MEM
31 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+55.4% more
Arkansas: 1.3
vs
Memphis: 0.6
Total Yards (L5)
+18.3% more
Arkansas: 531.9
vs
Memphis: 434.4
First Downs (L5)
+16.5% more
Arkansas: 26.9
vs
Memphis: 22.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+15.0% more
Arkansas: 0.6
vs
Memphis: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARK Score
6.0
31
MEM Score
51.0
32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
22.4 / 26.9
26.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards
210.4 / 228.0
290.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.6
0.46 / 0.3
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards
434.4 / 531.9
489.0 / 500.0
Turnovers
0.6 / 1.3
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: -8.3
MEM
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 16.2
ATS +/-: +6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: -8.3
MEM
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 16.2
ATS +/-: +6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -6.9
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
ARK
MEM
ARK
ML
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
ATS
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
TTL
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
20%
1-4
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