Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Purdue @ Notre Dame PUR @ ND

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

2-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 3:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

0-2  |  Home

56
Key Game
Jaxon Ott
KEY GAME

Jaxon Ott

#51 | Linebacker
@
Erik Schmidt
KEY GAME

Erik Schmidt

#18 | Punter
Player
Jaxon Ott None-None
Erik Schmidt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PURDUE
100%
📊
NOTRE DAME
0%
PURDUE --
NOTRE DAME --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Notre Dame)
PurduePUR (-3.5) 0 Notre DameND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purdue Cover

0.3%

Notre Dame Cover

99.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ND -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

PUR By 1-6 points

0.2%

PUR By 7-13 points

0.1%

ND By 1-6 points

0.9%

ND By 7-13 points

2.8%

AI Model Projected Score
0
PURDUE
38
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
17
PURDUE
31
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Notre Dame Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Sim Notre Dame (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 ND @ PUR 49 - 10
Sep 20, 2025 PUR @ ND 30 - 56
Sep 14, 2024 ND @ PUR 66 - 7
Sep 18, 2021 PUR @ ND 13 - 27
Sep 13, 2014 PUR @ ND 14 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.2% more
Notre Dame: 125.6 vs Purdue: 94.3
Total Yards (L5) +9.5% more
Notre Dame: 368.6 vs Purdue: 336.6
Turnovers (L5) +42.9% more
Purdue: 2.0 vs Notre Dame: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 0.0 30
ND Score 38.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 21.3 26.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 125.6 / 94.3 254.0 / 76.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 368.6 / 336.6 535.0 / 379.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 2.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
ND Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
PUR
ND
PUR
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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