Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Carolina @ UCF UNC @ UCF

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

2-1  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 3:30 PM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCF

UCFUCF

2-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jalon Thompson
KEY GAME

Jalon Thompson

#4 | Defensive Back
@
RJ Jackson Jr.
KEY GAME

RJ Jackson Jr.

#95 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Jalon Thompson None-None
RJ Jackson Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH CAROLINA
100%
📊
UCF
0%
NORTH CAROLINA --
UCF --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (UCF)
North CarolinaUNC (-3.5) 0 UCFUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Carolina Cover

26.0%

UCF Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCF -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

UNC By 1-6 points

11.5%

UNC By 7-13 points

8.0%

UCF By 1-6 points

15.7%

UCF By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
NORTH CAROLINA
30
UCF
Simulated Score
34
NORTH CAROLINA
30
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UCF Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim North Carolina Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UCF (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim North Carolina (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 64.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 UNC @ UCF 9 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.9% more
UCF: 231.2 vs North Carolina: 147.3
Total Yards (L5) +52.2% more
UCF: 459.6 vs North Carolina: 302.1
First Downs (L5) +48.4% more
UCF: 21.9 vs North Carolina: 14.8
Turnovers (L5) +17.4% more
North Carolina: 1.2 vs UCF: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 21.0 9
UCF Score 30.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 14.8 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 231.2 / 147.3 143.0 / 63.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 459.6 / 302.1 366.0 / 217.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
UCF Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
UCF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
UNC
UCF
UNC
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
ATS
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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