Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UT Martin @ Missouri St UTM @ MOST

UT MARTIN

UT MARTINUTM

0-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

1-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
Isaac Moore
KEY GAME

Isaac Moore

#80 | Wide Receiver
@
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
Player
Isaac Moore None-None
Stewart McDonald None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UT MARTIN
100%
📊
MISSOURI ST
0%
UT MARTIN --
MISSOURI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Missouri State)
UT MartinUTM (-3.5) 0 Missouri StMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UT Martin Cover

0.2%

Missouri St Cover

99.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MOST -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

UTM By 1-6 points

0.1%

UTM By 7-13 points

0.0%

MOST By 1-6 points

0.6%

MOST By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6
UT MARTIN
46
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
24
UT MARTIN
28
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Missouri St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
C
Sim Missouri St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 UTM @ MOST 10 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +114.9% more
Missouri State: 2.2 vs UT Martin: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +16.6% more
Missouri State: 333.8 vs UT Martin: 286.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.4% more
UT Martin: 96.5 vs Missouri State: 67.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
UT Martin: 0.3 vs Missouri State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTM Score 6.0 10
MOST Score 46.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 15.8 22.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 67.1 / 96.5 130.0 / 71.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 333.8 / 286.3 417.0 / 221.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
--
MOST Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
--
MOST Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
--
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
UTM
MOST
UTM
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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