Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Carolina @ Missouri SC @ MIZ

SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINASC

2-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

3-0  |  Home

29
Key Game
Mason Love
KEY GAME

Mason Love

#24 | Place kicker
@
DaMarion Fowlkes
KEY GAME

DaMarion Fowlkes

#3 | Wide Receiver
Player
Mason Love None-None
DaMarion Fowlkes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH CAROLINA
100%
📊
MISSOURI
0%
SOUTH CAROLINA --
MISSOURI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Missouri)
South CarolinaSC (-3.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Carolina Cover

5.8%

Missouri Cover

94.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIZ -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

SC By 1-6 points

3.3%

SC By 7-13 points

1.5%

MIZ By 1-6 points

7.2%

MIZ By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
17
SOUTH CAROLINA
39
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
24
SOUTH CAROLINA
27
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Missouri Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
C
Sim Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 SC @ MIZ 20 - 29
Nov 16, 2024 MIZ @ SC 30 - 34
Oct 21, 2023 SC @ MIZ 12 - 34
Oct 29, 2022 MIZ @ SC 23 - 10
Nov 13, 2021 SC @ MIZ 28 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +111.4% more
Missouri: 276.2 vs South Carolina: 130.7
Total Yards (L5) +53.0% more
Missouri: 528.7 vs South Carolina: 345.6
First Downs (L5) +38.5% more
Missouri: 26.8 vs South Carolina: 19.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Missouri: 0.6 vs South Carolina: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SC Score 17.0 20
MIZ Score 39.0 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.8 / 19.3 29.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 276.2 / 130.7 285.0 / -9.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.4 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 528.7 / 345.6 456.0 / 293.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: -3.9
MIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SC
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: -3.9
MIZ Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SC
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.1
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
SC
MIZ
SC
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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