Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Illinois @ Indiana ILL @ IU

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

3-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

3-0  |  Home

63
Key Game
Ismael Kante
KEY GAME

Ismael Kante

#26 | Linebacker
@
Quinn Warren
KEY GAME

Quinn Warren

#93 | Place kicker
Player
Ismael Kante None-None
Quinn Warren None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ILLINOIS
0%
📊
INDIANA
100%
ILLINOIS --
INDIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Illinois)
IllinoisILL (-3.5) 0 IndianaIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Illinois Cover

97.7%

Indiana Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ILL -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

ILL By 1-6 points

3.8%

ILL By 7-13 points

8.8%

IU By 1-6 points

1.4%

IU By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
55
ILLINOIS
27
INDIANA
Simulated Score
20
ILLINOIS
27
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Illinois Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Indiana Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Illinois (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Indiana (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 82.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 ILL @ IU 10 - 63
Nov 11, 2023 IU @ ILL 45 - 48
Sep 2, 2022 ILL @ IU 20 - 23
Nov 11, 2017 IU @ ILL 24 - 14
Nov 9, 2013 ILL @ IU 35 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.2% more
Indiana: 251.8 vs Illinois: 164.4
Total Yards (L5) +38.5% more
Indiana: 537.1 vs Illinois: 387.8
First Downs (L5) +31.1% more
Indiana: 27.8 vs Illinois: 21.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Indiana: 0.6 vs Illinois: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 55.0 10
IU Score 27.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.8 / 21.2 31.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 251.8 / 164.4 312.0 / 2.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.73 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.66 / 0.34
Total Yards 537.1 / 387.8 579.0 / 161.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
IU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
ILL
IU
ILL
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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