Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / California @ San Diego St CAL @ SDSU

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

3-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 10:30 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

1-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
@
Brady Nassar
KEY GAME

Brady Nassar

#33 | Linebacker
Player
Chase Meyer None-None
Brady Nassar None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
0%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
100%
CALIFORNIA --
SAN DIEGO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
72.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (California)
CaliforniaCAL (-3.5) 0 San Diego StSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

76.2%

San Diego St Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CAL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

CAL By 1-6 points

15.3%

CAL By 7-13 points

19.7%

SDSU By 1-6 points

10.7%

SDSU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
41
CALIFORNIA
31
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
17
CALIFORNIA
24
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI California Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim San Diego St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI California (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim San Diego St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 72.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 CAL @ SDSU 0 - 34
Sep 14, 2024 SDSU @ CAL 10 - 31
Sep 10, 2016 CAL @ SDSU 40 - 45
Sep 12, 2015 SDSU @ CAL 7 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.0% more
California: 0.8 vs San Diego State: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +12.0% more
California: 374.5 vs San Diego State: 329.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.2% more
San Diego State: 137.8 vs California: 115.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 41.0 0
SDSU Score 31.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 19.5 15.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 137.8 / 115.6 135.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 329.6 / 374.5 321.0 / 289.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
SDSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
CAL
SDSU
CAL
ML
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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