BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
69-79 | Road
2
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
86-62 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Wolfram
#48 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Wolfram | None-None | 4.85 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 3.21 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.85
ERA
Ldr 3.21
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
39%
BLUE JAYS
61%
ORIOLES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
28%
Under 0
72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.5%
BAL By 3-4 runs
12.2%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.54
BALTIMORE
Toronto
5.01
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Toronto
TOR
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.711
▲
OPS
.692
199
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+63.3% more
Toronto: 9.8
vs
Baltimore: 6.0
Total Bases (L5)
+50.7% more
Toronto: 13.5
vs
Baltimore: 8.9
Home Runs (L5)
+16.0% more
Toronto: 0.7
vs
Baltimore: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.7% more
Toronto: 8.6
vs
Baltimore: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.5
2
TOR Score
5.0
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 6.0
14.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 7.4
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 8.9
24.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.5
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BAL
TOR
BAL
ML
46%
74-87
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
90-71
61%
95-60-1
49%
79-81
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
80-76-5
54%
81-70-5
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
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