BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
69-77 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
84-62 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | None-None | 1.43 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
| Brendon Little | None-None | 3.05 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.43 Ldr
ERA
3.05
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
40%
BLUE JAYS
60%
ORIOLES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.8%
TOR By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5.02
BALTIMORE
Toronto
4.67
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Toronto
TOR
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.711
▲
OPS
.692
199
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+23.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Walks (L5)
+18.0% more
Baltimore: 3.4
vs
Toronto: 2.8
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Baltimore: 0.3
vs
Toronto: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.7% more
Baltimore: 9.5
vs
Toronto: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.0
1
TOR Score
4.7
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.8
10.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 9.5
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 9.1
12.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.4
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BAL
TOR
BAL
ML
46%
74-87
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
90-71
61%
95-60-1
49%
79-81
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
80-76-5
54%
81-70-5
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
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