Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Hampshire @ Ball State UNH @ BALL

NEW HAMPSHIRE

NEW HAMPSHIREUNH

2-0  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 2:00 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

0-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Matt Guidebeck
KEY GAME

Matt Guidebeck

#47 | Punter
@
Carson Holmer
KEY GAME

Carson Holmer

#98 | Place kicker
Player
Matt Guidebeck None-None
Carson Holmer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW HAMPSHIRE
100%
📊
BALL STATE
0%
NEW HAMPSHIRE --
BALL STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Ball State)
New HampshireUNH (-3.5) 0 Ball StateBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Hampshire Cover

0.1%

Ball State Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BALL -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

UNH By 1-6 points

0.0%

UNH By 7-13 points

0.0%

BALL By 1-6 points

0.2%

BALL By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6
NEW HAMPSHIRE
51
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
13
NEW HAMPSHIRE
34
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ball State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ball State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ball State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Sim Ball State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 UNH @ BALL 29 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +56.9% more
New Hampshire: 2.2 vs Ball State: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +18.3% more
New Hampshire: 279.1 vs Ball State: 227.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.6% more
New Hampshire: 70.5 vs Ball State: 61.6
First Downs (L5) +8.8% more
New Hampshire: 14.9 vs Ball State: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNH Score 6.0 29
BALL Score 51.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.6 / 14.9 21.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 61.6 / 70.5 308.0 / 132.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.7 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 227.9 / 279.1 413.0 / 391.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 2.2 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNH
--
BALL Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNH
--
BALL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNH
--
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
UNH
BALL
UNH
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
TTL
80% 4-1
0% 0-2
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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