Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Richmond @ North Carolina RICH @ UNC

RICHMOND

RICHMONDRICH

1-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Kenan Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

1-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Ned Gray
KEY GAME

Ned Gray

#37 | Punter
@
Reggie Love II
KEY GAME

Reggie Love II

#19 | Defensive Back
Player
Ned Gray None-None
Reggie Love II None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RICHMOND
100%
📊
NORTH CAROLINA
0%
RICHMOND --
NORTH CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (North Carolina)
RichmondRICH (-3.5) 0 North CarolinaUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Richmond Cover

0.2%

North Carolina Cover

99.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNC -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

RICH By 1-6 points

0.1%

RICH By 7-13 points

0.0%

UNC By 1-6 points

0.6%

UNC By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6
RICHMOND
46
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
10
RICHMOND
45
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI North Carolina Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim North Carolina Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI North Carolina (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
C
Sim North Carolina (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 RICH @ UNC 6 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +39.0% more
North Carolina: 1.3 vs Richmond: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
North Carolina: 297.1 vs Richmond: 269.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICH Score 6.0 6
UNC Score 46.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.2 / 14.8 16.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 124.5 / 130.2 193.0 / 124.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.2 0.55 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 297.1 / 269.3 312.0 / 199.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICH
--
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICH
--
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
RICH
--
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
RICH
UNC
RICH
ML
75% 3-1
100% 2-0
75% 3-1
100% 2-0
ATS
75% 3-1
100% 2-0
100% 4-0
50% 1-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
75% 3-1
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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