GEORGIA
GEORGIAUGA
2-0 | Road
44
TENNESSEE
TENNESSEETENN
2-0 | Home
41
Key Game
KEY GAME
Nnamdi Ogboko
#95 | Defensive Lineman@
KEY GAME
Jackson Ross
#98 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Nnamdi Ogboko | None-None |
| Jackson Ross | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA
0%
TENNESSEE
100%
GEORGIA
--
TENNESSEE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
23.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Georgia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UGA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)
UGA By 1-6 points
17.0%
UGA By 7-13 points
17.5%
TENN By 1-6 points
15.3%
TENN By 7-13 points
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Georgia
13
GEORGIA
Tennessee
10
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
Georgia
20
GEORGIA
Tennessee
31
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Georgia
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tennessee
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Georgia (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim
Tennessee (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 23.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2025
UGA @ TENN
44 - 41
Nov 16, 2024
TENN @ UGA
17 - 31
Nov 18, 2023
UGA @ TENN
38 - 10
Nov 5, 2022
TENN @ UGA
13 - 27
Nov 13, 2021
UGA @ TENN
41 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+32.8% more
Georgia: 1.4
vs
Tennessee: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5)
+40.4% more
Tennessee: 232.2
vs
Georgia: 165.3
Total Yards (L5)
+28.7% more
Tennessee: 522.0
vs
Georgia: 405.6
First Downs (L5)
+19.8% more
Tennessee: 28.6
vs
Georgia: 23.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UGA Score
13.0
44
TENN Score
10.0
41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
28.6 / 23.9
23.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards
232.2 / 165.3
125.0 / 198.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.6 / 0.4
0.42 / 0.47
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards
522.0 / 405.6
496.0 / 502.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 1.4
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA
Advantage
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 38.0
ATS +/-: +7.7
TENN
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 21.6
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 38.0
ATS +/-: +7.7
TENN
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 21.6
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +12.9
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
UGA
TENN
UGA
ML
80%
4-1
100%
4-0
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
ATS
80%
4-1
50%
2-2
100%
5-0
20%
1-4
TTL
20%
1-4
75%
3-1
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
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