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SMU

SMUSMU

1-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

1-1  |  Home

10
Key Game
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
@
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
Player
Wade McSparron None-None
Stewart McDonald None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SMU
0%
📊
MISSOURI ST
100%
SMU --
MISSOURI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (SMU)
SMUSMU (-3.5) 0 Missouri StMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SMU Cover

99.6%

Missouri St Cover

0.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SMU -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

SMU By 1-6 points

1.0%

SMU By 7-13 points

3.2%

MOST By 1-6 points

0.3%

MOST By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
56
SMU
19
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
10
SMU
45
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI SMU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI SMU (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
C
Sim Missouri St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MOST @ SMU 24 - 34
Sep 13, 2025 SMU @ MOST 28 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.7% more
SMU: 136.7 vs Missouri State: 74.2
First Downs (L5) +33.7% more
SMU: 23.3 vs Missouri State: 15.5
Total Yards (L5) +18.0% more
SMU: 410.6 vs Missouri State: 336.7
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Missouri State: 0.5 vs SMU: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 56.0 28
MOST Score 19.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 23.3 19.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 74.2 / 136.7 53.0 / 167.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 336.7 / 410.6 328.0 / 448.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.9 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
MOST
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
MOST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
MOST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
SMU
MOST
SMU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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