Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / W Michigan @ Illinois WMU @ ILL

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

0-2  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

2-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
@
Joe Barna
KEY GAME

Joe Barna

#43 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Ryan Millmore None-None
Joe Barna None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W MICHIGAN
100%
📊
ILLINOIS
0%
W MICHIGAN --
ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Illinois)
W MichiganWMU (-3.5) 0 IllinoisILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Michigan Cover

4.3%

Illinois Cover

95.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ILL -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

WMU By 1-6 points

2.5%

WMU By 7-13 points

1.1%

ILL By 1-6 points

5.9%

ILL By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6
WESTERN MICHIGAN
30
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
17
WESTERN MICHIGAN
38
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Illinois Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Illinois Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Illinois (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim Illinois (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 WMU @ ILL 0 - 38
Sep 17, 2016 WMU @ ILL 34 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +36.2% more
Illinois: 402.6 vs Western Michigan: 295.5
First Downs (L5) +30.2% more
Illinois: 21.8 vs Western Michigan: 16.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.3% more
Illinois: 165.6 vs Western Michigan: 147.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 6.0 0
ILL Score 30.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 16.7 20.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 165.6 / 147.4 162.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 402.6 / 295.5 358.0 / 204.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
ILL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
WMU
ILL
WMU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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