Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas A&M @ Notre Dame TA&M @ ND

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

2-0  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

0-1  |  Home

40
Key Game
Dezz Ricks
KEY GAME

Dezz Ricks

#2 | Cornerback
@
Loghan Thomas
KEY GAME

Loghan Thomas

#10 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Dezz Ricks None-None
Loghan Thomas None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS A&M
100%
📊
NOTRE DAME
0%
TEXAS A&M --
NOTRE DAME --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Notre Dame)
Texas A&MTA&M (-3.5) 0 Notre DameND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas A&M Cover

6.7%

Notre Dame Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ND -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

TA&M By 1-6 points

3.8%

TA&M By 7-13 points

1.8%

ND By 1-6 points

7.9%

ND By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21
TEXAS A&M
42
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
24
TEXAS A&M
27
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Notre Dame Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Notre Dame (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 TA&M @ ND 41 - 40
Aug 31, 2024 ND @ TA&M 23 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +8.3% more
Notre Dame: 1.2 vs Texas A&M: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.7% more
Texas A&M: 171.2 vs Notre Dame: 120.3
Total Yards (L5) +25.1% more
Texas A&M: 452.1 vs Notre Dame: 338.5
First Downs (L5) +18.7% more
Texas A&M: 23.5 vs Notre Dame: 19.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score 21.0 41
ND Score 42.0 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 23.5 23.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 120.3 / 171.2 136.0 / 128.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 338.5 / 452.1 429.0 / 488.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
ND
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
TA&M
ND
TA&M
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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