Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UMass @ Iowa MASS @ IOWA

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

1-1  |  Home

47
Key Game
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
@
Luke Gaffney
KEY GAME

Luke Gaffney

#51 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Derek Morris None-None
Luke Gaffney None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UMASS
100%
📊
IOWA
0%
UMASS --
IOWA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
25.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Iowa)
UMassMASS (-3.5) 0 IowaIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UMass Cover

17.7%

Iowa Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IOWA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

MASS By 1-6 points

8.6%

MASS By 7-13 points

5.3%

IOWA By 1-6 points

13.5%

IOWA By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MASSACHUSETTS
19
IOWA
Simulated Score
7
MASSACHUSETTS
38
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Iowa (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 25.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 MASS @ IOWA 7 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.6% more
Iowa: 183.7 vs Massachusetts: 145.0
Total Yards (L5) +20.9% more
Massachusetts: 349.7 vs Iowa: 276.5
First Downs (L5) +18.8% more
Massachusetts: 19.9 vs Iowa: 16.2
Turnovers (L5) +14.3% more
Massachusetts: 1.1 vs Iowa: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MASS Score 6.0 7
IOWA Score 19.0 47
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.2 / 19.9 22.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 183.7 / 145.0 201.0 / 26.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 276.5 / 349.7 435.0 / 119.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
IOWA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
IOWA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
IOWA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
MASS
IOWA
MASS
ML
80% 4-1
0% 0-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
67% 2-1
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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