Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Vanderbilt @ South Carolina VAN @ SC

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

2-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:45 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINASC

2-0  |  Home

7
Key Game
Vanzale Hinton
KEY GAME

Vanzale Hinton

#12 | Safety
@
Mason Love
KEY GAME

Mason Love

#24 | Place kicker
Player
Vanzale Hinton None-None
Mason Love None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VANDERBILT
36%
📊
SOUTH CAROLINA
64%
VANDERBILT --
SOUTH CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (South Carolina)
VanderbiltVAN (-3.5) 0 South CarolinaSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vanderbilt Cover

0.6%

South Carolina Cover

99.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SC -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SC)

VAN By 1-6 points

0.4%

VAN By 7-13 points

0.1%

SC By 1-6 points

1.4%

SC By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
10
VANDERBILT
45
SOUTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
17
VANDERBILT
34
SOUTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Carolina Loss
64% Win Prob
D
Sim South Carolina Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Carolina (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim South Carolina (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 VAN @ SC 31 - 7
Nov 9, 2024 SC @ VAN 28 - 7
Nov 11, 2023 VAN @ SC 6 - 47
Nov 5, 2022 SC @ VAN 38 - 27
Oct 16, 2021 VAN @ SC 20 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.4% more
Vanderbilt: 187.6 vs South Carolina: 153.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.6 vs South Carolina: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +15.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.9 vs South Carolina: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Vanderbilt: 394.9 vs South Carolina: 354.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 10.0 31
SC Score 45.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 20.8 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 153.0 / 187.6 86.0 / 146.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.33 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 354.4 / 394.9 328.0 / 323.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.9 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
SC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
SC
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
SC
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SC
VAN
SC
VAN
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
TTL
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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