Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boston College @ Stanford BC @ STAN

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

1-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 10:30 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

0-2  |  Home

30
Key Game
Luca Lombardo
KEY GAME

Luca Lombardo

#99 | Place kicker
@
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
Player
Luca Lombardo None-None
Aidan Flintoft None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOSTON COLLEGE
0%
📊
STANFORD
100%
BOSTON COLLEGE --
STANFORD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Boston College)
Boston CollegeBC (-3.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boston College Cover

80.4%

Stanford Cover

19.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BC -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BC)

BC By 1-6 points

14.2%

BC By 7-13 points

19.5%

STAN By 1-6 points

9.3%

STAN By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
31
BOSTON COLLEGE
19
STANFORD
Simulated Score
28
BOSTON COLLEGE
31
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Boston College Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Stanford Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Boston College (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Sim Stanford (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 BC @ STAN 20 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +39.2% more
Boston College: 441.4 vs Stanford: 268.3
First Downs (L5) +26.7% more
Boston College: 23.1 vs Stanford: 17.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Boston College: 0.5 vs Stanford: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +133.0% more
Stanford: 2.0 vs Boston College: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BC Score 31.0 20
STAN Score 19.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 23.1 15.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 100.9 / 103.9 213.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 268.3 / 441.4 399.0 / 389.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BC Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
BC
STAN
BC
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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