Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Minnesota @ California MINN @ CAL

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

2-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 10:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

2-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
TJ Bush Jr.
KEY GAME

TJ Bush Jr.

#3 | Defensive Lineman
@
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
Player
TJ Bush Jr. None-None
Chase Meyer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MINNESOTA
100%
📊
CALIFORNIA
0%
MINNESOTA --
CALIFORNIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (California)
MinnesotaMINN (-3.5) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Minnesota Cover

47.2%

California Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

MINN By 1-6 points

16.1%

MINN By 7-13 points

14.6%

CAL By 1-6 points

16.7%

CAL By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MINNESOTA
7
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
23
MINNESOTA
20
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI California Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Minnesota Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI California (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Minnesota (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 MINN @ CAL 14 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.5% more
Minnesota: 182.0 vs California: 142.9
First Downs (L5) +16.4% more
Minnesota: 23.7 vs California: 19.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 6.0 14
CAL Score 7.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 23.7 19.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 142.9 / 182.0 61.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 391.7 / 418.8 340.0 / 335.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
MINN
CAL
MINN
ML
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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