Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Indiana St @ Indiana INST @ IU

INDIANA STATE

INDIANA STINST

2-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 12 • 6:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

2-0  |  Home

73
Key Game
Spencer Conrad
KEY GAME

Spencer Conrad

#99 | Place kicker
@
Quinn Warren
KEY GAME

Quinn Warren

#93 | Place kicker
Player
Spencer Conrad None-None
Quinn Warren None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA ST
100%
📊
INDIANA
0%
INDIANA ST --
INDIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-49.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +49.0 points (Indiana)
Indiana StINST (-3.5) 0 IndianaIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Indiana St Cover

0.0%

Indiana Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IU -49.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

INST By 1-6 points

0.0%

INST By 7-13 points

0.0%

IU By 1-6 points

0.1%

IU By 7-13 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
0
INDIANA STATE
49
INDIANA
Simulated Score
10
INDIANA STATE
48
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Indiana Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -49.0
B
Sim Indiana (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2025 INST @ IU 0 - 73
Sep 8, 2023 INST @ IU 7 - 41
Aug 30, 2014 INST @ IU 10 - 28
Aug 29, 2013 INST @ IU 35 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +148.0% more
Indiana: 465.7 vs Indiana State: 187.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +143.2% more
Indiana: 227.2 vs Indiana State: 93.4
First Downs (L5) +125.1% more
Indiana: 25.1 vs Indiana State: 11.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +29.0% more
Indiana: 0.5 vs Indiana State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
INST Score 0.0 0
IU Score 49.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.1 / 11.2 33.0 / 5.0
Rushing Yards 227.2 / 93.4 301.0 / 39.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.75 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 465.7 / 187.8 680.0 / 77.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
--
IU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST
--
IU Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
--
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
INST
IU
INST
ML
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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