Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Austin Peay @ Georgia APSU @ UGA

AUSTIN PEAY

AUSTIN PEAYAPSU

1-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 2:28 PM ET
Sanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

1-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Chris Brown

#8 | Defensive Lineman
@
Ellis Robinson IV
KEY GAME

Ellis Robinson IV

#1 | Defensive Back
Player
Chris Brown None-None
Ellis Robinson IV None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUSTIN PEAY
0%
📊
GEORGIA
100%
AUSTIN PEAY --
GEORGIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
68.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Austin Peay)
Austin PeayAPSU (-3.5) 0 GeorgiaUGA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Austin Peay Cover

61.2%

Georgia Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around APSU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)

APSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

APSU By 7-13 points

18.0%

UGA By 1-6 points

14.7%

UGA By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
35.98
AUSTIN PEAY
31.98
GEORGIA
Simulated Score
3
AUSTIN PEAY
52
GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Austin Peay Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Austin Peay (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Georgia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -49.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 68.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 APSU @ UGA 6 - 28
Sep 1, 2018 APSU @ UGA 0 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.2% more
Austin Peay: 1.5 vs Georgia: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.6% more
Georgia: 153.0 vs Austin Peay: 101.6
Total Yards (L5) +47.5% more
Georgia: 398.0 vs Austin Peay: 269.8
First Downs (L5) +43.8% more
Georgia: 22.8 vs Austin Peay: 15.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APSU Score 36.0 6
UGA Score 32.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 15.9 26.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 153.0 / 101.6 190.0 / 45.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.54 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 398.0 / 269.8 421.0 / 196.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU
--
UGA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
--
UGA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
--
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
APSU
UGA
APSU
ML
100% 4-0
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
TTL
75% 3-1
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
ESPN's College GameDay Shifts Indoors to Coleman Coliseum for Al…
yahoo 5 hours, 51 minutes ago
SEC Power Rankings: Unraveling the Chaos After Another Turbulent…
hottytoddy 1 day ago
Week 6 College Football: Five Must-Watch Matchups Set to Shake U…
yahoo 1 day ago