Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bryant @ UMass BRY @ MASS

BRYANT

BRYANTBRY

0-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 5:30 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-1  |  Home

26
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Jaden Keefner

#10 | Quarterback
@
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Jaden Keefner None-None
Derek Morris None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRYANT
50%
📊
UMASS
50%
BRYANT --
UMASS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 36%
Under 0 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.6
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.6 points (Massachusetts)
BryantBRY (-3.5) 0 UMassMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bryant Cover

14.9%

UMass Cover

85.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MASS -14.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MASS)

BRY By 1-6 points

7.5%

BRY By 7-13 points

4.4%

MASS By 1-6 points

12.5%

MASS By 7-13 points

18.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5.78
BRYANT
20.36
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
20
BRYANT
34
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UMass Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim UMass Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UMass (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.6
D
Sim UMass (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 26.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 BRY @ MASS 27 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +87.7% more
Massachusetts: 167.0 vs Bryant: 89.0
Total Yards (L5) +19.7% more
Massachusetts: 345.6 vs Bryant: 288.8
Turnovers (L5) +18.0% more
Massachusetts: 1.2 vs Bryant: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +8.7% more
Massachusetts: 19.4 vs Bryant: 17.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRY Score 5.8 27
MASS Score 20.4 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 17.9 21.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 167.0 / 89.0 101.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 345.6 / 288.8 358.0 / 399.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRY
--
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRY
--
MASS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BRY
--
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
BRY
MASS
BRY
ML
0% 0-3
100% 1-0
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-1
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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