Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / C Michigan @ Pitt CMU @ PITT

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

1-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

1-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Zac Chapeau
KEY GAME

Zac Chapeau

#15 | Place kicker
@
Allen Bryant
KEY GAME

Allen Bryant

#26 | Defensive Back
Player
Zac Chapeau None-None
Allen Bryant None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C MICHIGAN
100%
📊
PITT
0%
C MICHIGAN --
PITT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.2 points (Pittsburgh)
C MichiganCMU (-3.5) 0 PittPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Michigan Cover

12.4%

Pitt Cover

87.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PITT -16.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

CMU By 1-6 points

6.4%

CMU By 7-13 points

3.6%

PITT By 1-6 points

11.3%

PITT By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
16.51
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
32.68
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
17
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
38
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pitt Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Pitt Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pitt (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.2
C
Sim Pitt (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 CMU @ PITT 17 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.4% more
Pittsburgh: 1.9 vs Central Michigan: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +38.7% more
Pittsburgh: 400.4 vs Central Michigan: 288.6
First Downs (L5) +34.7% more
Pittsburgh: 23.0 vs Central Michigan: 17.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs Central Michigan: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMU Score 16.5 17
PITT Score 32.7 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 17.1 22.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 152.4 / 172.8 124.0 / 40.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 400.4 / 288.6 464.0 / 217.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
CMU
PITT
CMU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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